The Morning: Canada votes


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2025-04-28 12:47


Plus, Ukraine, the papal transition and food banks.
The Morning

April 28, 2025

Good morning. Marco Rubio said that the U.S. will decide this week whether to continue pursuing Ukraine peace talks. Cardinals are politicking to be pope. Food banks are struggling.

More news is below. But first our colleague Matina Stevis-Gridneff explains the stakes in Canada’s election.

Pierre Poilievre, in a dark business suit, shakes hands with Mark Carney, who is also wearing a dark business suit, on a debate stage.
Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney. Pool photo by Christopher Katsarov

Canada votes

Author Headshot

By Matina Stevis-Gridneff

I’m the Canada bureau chief.

Canadians vote today in an election strangely dominated by the United States.

Until early this year, Liberals suffered in polls, and Conservatives held a huge lead. Then President Trump threatened to annex the country. He imposed tariffs so steep that some economists foresee a recession. And he enraged Canadians, reversing the fortunes of each party. Liberals made Trump the center of their campaign and rapidly took the lead.

America’s shadow is also shaping the way many Canadians regard their ballot. Traditionally, voters elect their local representatives for Parliament, and then parties elect their leaders. The head of the biggest party is the prime minister.

This time, though, everything is personal. Many voters say they are thinking less about party loyalty and more about the man they want in the room negotiating with Trump. The question for voters is: Which candidate can best defend Canada against what they see as the American menace? (The parties both oppose tariffs and annexation but criticize Trump with varying levels of intensity.)

Today’s newsletter explains the stakes of a surprising race and introduces you to the two major candidates.

The banker and the politician

What do Canadians want to see in their next leader?

The Conservative Party’s Pierre Poilievre, 45, is more moderate than Trump on important issues including immigration and the size of government. He wants to limit both but not radically cut them.

Yet he holds other positions in common with the American president: He savors a culture war and denounces “woke ideology.” He likes cryptocurrencies. He has a sharp tongue. He antagonizes mainstream news outlets. He wants to defund the country’s national broadcaster. At a time when Trump looks like a threat to their country, this is too much for many Canadians.

For several years, the Conservatives dominated in polls over the governing Liberals, led then by an unpopular prime minister, Justin Trudeau. Poilievre crafted a popular line of argument. He said he’d cut taxes, fight crime, add housing and tackle an affordability crisis.

Then came Trump — and, soon after, Trudeau’s resignation. It was the perfect opportunity for the Liberal Party’s Mark Carney, who positions himself as the antidote to Trump and the best person to make a deal with him. Carney, 60, is a career central banker and boardroom executive. He calls himself a pragmatic and experienced crisis manager.

Under different circumstances, Carney would have what people in politics call a “boring” problem. He can come across as professorial and stiff. His critics complain that he spent much of his adult life overseas running in rarefied circles like the World Economic Forum in Davos; they call him an elitist. But his supporters say the very same attributes have prepared him to confront Trump.

With Trudeau gone and Trump on the march, Carney’s fortunes rose quickly. In March, the Liberals elected him leader and he became prime minister. Voters began turning against Poilievre immediately, and his 20-plus-point lead evaporated. Now Carney’s Liberals have a four-point advantage in polls as the country heads to the ballots.

A chart shows support for Canadian political parties among decided voters. In February 2025, support for the Liberal Party surpassed support for the Conservative Party. While the Liberals still held the lead, the Conservatives had narrowed the gap as of April 21.
Source: Ipsos | Data is from September 2021 to April 27, 2025 | By The New York Times

The real question

Poilievre can’t run as another anti-Trump, so he has a different pitch: He pledges to reverse a decade-long period of national decline. That message resonates with voters who believe that Trudeau inherited one of the world’s greatest nations and left it a shadow of its former self. They blame the Liberals for stagnant growth, high inflation and spiraling living costs. Polls show that young men in particular have responded to this pitch.

Partly for that reason, Carney has distanced himself from Trudeau, whom he advised on the economy in recent years.

The election may come down to Trump and how important Canadians think he is to their future. Will centrist voters want to hold Liberals accountable for a recent period of malaise? Or do they think it’s more important to protect their economy (and perhaps their sovereignty) from the bully next door?

We’ll know tonight.

For more

  • Many Canadians believe this election is the most important of their lifetime. Read more about the issues.
  • Carney’s experience working with Chinese business and leadership was once an asset. In this election, it’s a liability.

THE LATEST NEWS

War in Ukraine

Immigration

  • Two children with U.S. citizenship were deported to Honduras alongside their undocumented mother. Their lawyer said the mother was given no choice but to take the children, which the government denies.
  • In Colorado, federal agents raided a nightclub and detained more than 100 people they said were undocumented migrants. More than a dozen active-duty members of the U.S. military were detained as well.

More on Politics

A volunteer in a white apron taking a break in an institutional kitchen.
At a food bank in West Virginia. Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times
  • Food banks are struggling. In one of the country’s poorest areas, the quantity and quality of government deliveries have dropped. See inside.
  • Congress returns from recess today. Republicans are preparing to outline spending cuts.
  • The Illinois governor, JB Pritzker, railed against the “simpering timidity” of some Democrats. Some in the party see him as a presidential contender.

Papal Transition

Middle East

In One Diagram

A diagram shows the share of imported common household items are from China. Seventy-eight percent of imported computer monitors are from China; 64 percent of pillows; more than 99 percent of alarm clocks and toasters; and 24 percent of office chairs.
Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission; Observatory of Economic Complexity; U.S. Customs and Border Protection | By The New York Times

How many things in your home were imported from China? Your toaster almost certainly was. So were your pillows, probably, but most likely not your TV. Times journalists analyzed import data to create this room-by-room tour. Look at the red items: They will likely cost more, or be harder to find, because of tariffs.

Other Big Stories

A man in a green uniform checks the documents of a man waiting in a line.
At the India-Pakistan border. Atul Loke for The New York Times
  • In response to a terrorist attack in Kashmir, India told almost all Pakistanis to leave the country. The order divided mixed families.
  • On “60 Minutes,” the journalist Scott Pelley chastised the show’s parent company, Paramount, explaining why the executive producer resigned. He said Paramount “began to supervise our content in new ways.”
  • “It’s just us”: The White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner didn’t have a comedian or the president in attendance. The mood was more serious than in years past.

Opinions

A group of 35 legal scholars, with diverse viewpoints, spoke to Times Opinion about Trump’s first 100 days of lawlessness.

Gail Collins and Bret Stephens bring their “Conversation” to an end.

Here’s a column by David French on Harvard’s fight against Trump.

A subscription to match the variety of your interests.

News. Games. Recipes. Product reviews. Sports reporting. A New York Times All Access subscription covers all of it and more. Subscribe today.

MORNING READS

A photograph of a painting on a billboard. A woman is on the right, wearing a cowboy hat; on the left is a man with his shirt open and a rifle slung across his shoulders. A building is at the back. The sky is blue and the ground is brown dirt.
In Marfa, Texas. Jessica Lutz for The New York Times

Travel: Spend 36 hours in Marfa, Texas.

Emojis, matcha, sushi: These 10 Japanese innovations shape our daily lives.

Chiropractors: Instagram has made neck cracking look appealing. Some experts say it’s dangerous, The Cut reports.

Child influencer: Evan Lee still had baby teeth when he became a YouTube star. Now he’s 19 and ready to reflect.

Marriage: New data shows many Americans in their 20s don’t want to take their partner’s name, The Washington Post reports.

Metropolitan Diary: Tattoos and opera.

Most clicked yesterday: Zoom in on this photo for a closer look at who attended Pope Francis’ funeral.

Trending online yesterday: A driver plowed into a Filipino street festival in Vancouver, killing at least 11 people. See video of a witness describing the attack.

Lives Lived: Alexis Herman was a Democratic Party insider who grew up under segregation in Alabama and became the first Black secretary of labor. She died at 77.

SPORTS

N.B.A.: The returning Bucks star Damian Lillard left Milwaukee’s loss with a fresh injury. It highlighted a tough day for the league’s biggest names.

Obituary: Only two Knicks teams have won N.B.A. championships. Dick Barnett, a guard with an unusual but effective jump shot, played on both. He died at 88.

N.H.L.: Connor McDavid and the Oilers won, 4-3 in overtime, against the Kings. Read a recap.

ARTS AND IDEAS

A young woman with short hair reclines in a rocking chair on an outdoor porch. She wears a white dress and smiles warmly for the camera.
Edna St. Vincent Millay in 1923. John Lofman, published with permission of The Edna St. Vincent Millay Society

The Book Review has a challenge for readers this week. Can you memorize “Recuerdo,” a poem by Edna St. Vincent Millay? A.O. Scott and Aliza Aufrichtig write:

Why did we pick “Recuerdo”? We combed through our shelves like Goldilocks, looking for a poem that was just right: not too difficult, but not too simple; not obscure but not a chestnut; not a downer but not frivolous either. We didn’t want a poem that was too long, and we thought something that rhymed would be more fun — and easier — to memorize than a cascade of free verse.

The challenge begins today with a simple task: Meet the poem and learn its refrain. You’ll learn more of it over the course of the week. You’ll also see videos of poets, novelists and actors reading along with you.

Start the poetry challenge here.

More on culture

A group of small fuzzy toys with big eyes and big teeth are seen on a rainbow-colored road.
Labubu dolls. Pop Mart
  • New lines of Labubu dolls, tiny fuzzy Nordic elves with mischievous grins, regularly sell out online. (Rihanna and Dua Lipa are admirers.) Read about the craze.
  • Pedro Almodóvar will receive a Chaplin Award, Film at Lincoln Center’s highest honor. The Times asked nine actresses, including Julianne Moore, about working with Almodóvar.
  • An exhibit at the National Museum of Women celebrates 40 years of the feminist art collective Guerrilla Girls. See some of the works on display.

THE MORNING RECOMMENDS …

Top down view of Chocolate Cookies.
Kelly Marshall for The New York Times

Bake these miso chocolate chip cookies, which don’t need butter or flour.

Squat correctly. See how.

Pass some time with a jigsaw.

Take our news quiz.

GAMES

Here is today’s Spelling Bee. Yesterday’s pangram was painful.

And here are today’s Mini Crossword, Wordle, Connections, Sports Connections and Strands.

Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow.

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Editor: Adam B. Kushner

News Editor: Tom Wright-Piersanti

Associate Editor: Lauren Jackson

News Staff: Desiree Ibekwe, Brent Lewis, German Lopez, Ashley Wu

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Saturday Writer: Melissa Kirsch

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